Study 36 – Future availability of hydrogen

Globally, in 2022, hydrogen consumption stood at around 94 million tonnes, and its production remains predominantly carbon-intensive, with 81 per cent derived from natural gas or coal.

Whilst a sharp increase in hydrogen consumption, particularly for energy purposes, is forecast (this energy carrier is identified in the France 2030 plan as one of the drivers for decarbonising industry), the question arises as to the availability of greener and more sustainable production methods. Indeed, the rise in demand is expected to open up new opportunities for use and decarbonisation in the energy, transport and residential sectors.

At a time when various projects using hydrogen to decarbonise a range of applications are emerging, many uncertainties remain. Indeed, the production of ‘green’ hydrogen remains limited by the capacity to develop additional renewable energy sources, and the integration of carbon-based hydrogen is not a viable solution for decarbonising industrial processes. Furthermore, the costs of developing hydrogen remain uncertain, depending on the as yet unclear development of renewable energy sources dedicated to its production, as well as on electrolysers and how they operate, which is holding back stakeholders from making projections and investing in this sector.

The objectives of the study are as follows:

Based on a meta-analysis of published studies, the ALLICE study assesses the challenges relating to the availability of hydrogen for industrial uses in France, considering the following questions:

• How should hydrogen uses be prioritised to optimise decarbonisation, and what role would industrial applications play in this? For which uses should hydrogen be favoured over other alternatives?

• What challenges does the development of dedicated hydrogen infrastructure pose, given the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of its uses?

• What future synergies with other countries could be envisaged? What infrastructure would then be required? Among the conclusions of this study:

• There are still a number of uncertainties surrounding the role of hydrogen in industrial applications in France in 2050.
• H₂ production is expected to be driven by future demand and to be decarbonised through electrolysis, although challenges—particularly cost-related ones—remain within the sector.
• The studies reviewed show significant discrepancies in their projections of H₂ demand for different uses, revealing very different assumptions.
• Any analysis of hydrogen deployment in France must take into account the wider European context and the related supply issues.
• The report provides a critical framework for analysing the key indicators of the technical and economic competitiveness of hydrogen and its alternatives.