Study 35 – Summary of prospective studies on the availability and demand for biomass for industrial energy uses

The growing demand for biomass to decarbonise the economy raises questions about its availability and competition for its use by 2050.

Globally, a sharp increase in the consumption of biomass for energy purposes is expected (the International Energy Agency, for example, forecasts a 48 per cent rise between 2020 and 2050 in its Net Zero scenario).

This increase will be driven mainly by the need for carbon-free electricity and heat generation, and by demand from the industrial sector. In France, although electricity is already largely carbon-free, an increase in consumption is also expected for the production of heat through combustion and biogas.

Nevertheless, bio-resources require much more land than other decarbonisation options, and their limited availability raises a number of key questions:

• What is the best approach to land use?
• How can we make the most of biomass whilst preserving biodiversity and carbon sinks?
• How can we prioritise the uses of biomass to meet all our needs and optimise the decarbonisation of our society?

Based on a meta-analysis of available public studies, the ALLICE study assesses the challenges associated with the future mobilisation of France’s biomass resources to meet industry demand for bioenergy:

• Quantification of the available biomass resource in 2030 and 2050
• Biomass demand scenarios
• Competition and prioritisation of uses
• Identifying the key factors for optimising the exploitation of the deposit

Most scenarios highlight a shortfall in biomass to meet bioenergy demand by 2030 and 2050. However, due to significant differences between the scenarios in terms of assumptions – and therefore in projections of availability and demand – the results obtained do not allow for a definitive conclusion regarding the shortfall in biomass. Regular updates to this work will enable the analysis to be refined.